Short Term Load Forecasting With Similar Months Mathematical Model For Regional Residential Subscribers

In this study, the difference between the profile coefficients were examined , with regard to the states of whether the temperature and time forecast to be considered with the use of similar month mathematical model in the calculation of load profiles. Determination of the load profile coefficients in a correct way; has great importance in terms of reducing the cost of imbalance. Residential electricity consumption measurements data, provided by Sakarya Electricity Distribution Company (SEDAŞ) in Turkey , which change based on the hourly temperature information belonging to the months in 2015 July-2016 June period; were used in the study. The mathematical model that is called multiple Regression Analysis; was applied for load forecasting. The consumption values were estimated depending on the hour of day and temperature information by using the mathematical model and load profile coefficients were determined based on this electrical energy estimates. The load profiles were prepared according to the possibility of change or decrease in hour and temperature values and the differences were compared between them. It was clearly understood that, the load profiles would be more accurately obtained with similar month mathematical model in case that the temperature and hour of day information were taken into consideration